Here's What You Need to Know Four Days from the Election

There are four days remaining until the 2024 Presidential election. Here’s what you need to know:

Enemies List — Trump frequently references the “enemy within,” whom he plans to have arrested and/or punished. Axios has compiled a list based on Trump’s past statements about who would be on his “enemies list” —- and it’s not just Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi. It includes Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Barack Obama, whom Trump has even suggested should face a military tribunal.

More broadly, Trump has targeted major news networks, election protestors, pro-Palestinian demonstrators, and Supreme Court critics. He has repeatedly said —- echoed by RFK, Jr. last night —- that he wants to revoke CBS’s broadcast license. Hear that, folks? No more NCIS, FBI, or Survivor.

Liz Cheney — Liz Cheney is also on Trump’s enemies list. During a conversation with Tucker Carlson last night, Trump shared a disturbing gun-related fantasy about her: “Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with 9 barrels shooting at her. Let’s see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face.”

Yes, I get it — the context was that she’s a war hawk. And she is. But this was a bizarre way to express opposition to that position. Cheney has responded.

J.D. Vance — In his three-hour interview with Joe Rogan, J.D. Vance said a bunch of bullshit, namely that parents are encouraging their children to be trans so that they can get into Ivy League schools.

“If you are a, you know, middle-class or upper-middle-class white parent, and the only thing that you care about is whether your child goes into Harvard or Yale, like, obviously, that pathway has become a lot harder for a lot of upper-middle-class kids. But the one way that those people can participate in the D.E.I. bureaucracy in this country is to be trans.”

He also said that he wouldn’t be surprised if Trump won the “the normal gay guy vote,” whatever that is supposed to mean, and that women “celebrate” their abortions with birthday cakes (on this point and on abortion as a whole, Rogan did push back). He also said that fat and unhealthy people are more liberal, and I have no idea what the hell he’s on about. What?

Jobs Report — While all the other economic reports to come out ahead of the election have been good for Biden-Harris, the jobs report — the last before the election — was something of a wash. The United States only added a paltry 12,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate actually remained the same at 4.1 percent. The job numbers were primarily affected by the Boeing strike and the hurricanes (in fact, half a million people reported being employed but out of work because of bad weather). I’m sure that the Republicans will seize on the report and try to make political hay out of it — Fox News is probably completely ignoring the affect of the strikes and the hurricanes — but 1) I promise you that swing voters in Pennsylvania are not going to base their vote on a jobs report, and 2) the news cycle will move on to something else by noon today.

Jennifer Lopez — Lopez endorsed Kamala Harris last night in a spirited speech prompted by comments about Puerto Rico from Trump’s rally on Sunday.

Cardi B — Cardi B will deliver remarks at a Harris rally today in Wisconsin.

LeBron James — LeBron James, who endorsed Joe Biden in 2020, has been quiet this election season until last night when he endorsed Kamala Harris to his 160 million Instagram followers with this powerful video.

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Pennsylvania — Those keeping an eye on polls (and yes, we know they’re not definitive, thank you) may have noticed Pennsylvania shifting slightly toward Trump in recent days. However, the latest Marist poll (ranked 6th by 538) shows Harris up by +2, with a noticeable swing among independents. This is the first high-quality poll conducted entirely after the Puerto Rico incident. Take it with the usual margin of error, grain of salt, etc., but it’s worth noting, especially after right-leaning polls (e.g., Echelon) and more reputable ones (Quinnipiac) showed a slim Trump lead.

Enthusiasm Gap — A new Gallup poll finds that 77 percent of Democratic voters are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, compared to 67 percent of Republicans. This enthusiasm level is slightly higher than Democrats had before the 2008 election when Barack Obama won, which is promising.

Early Voting — Encouraging early voting numbers persist (with the exception of Nevada, oddly). Polls that ask early voters who they have cast ballots for show Harris leading by considerable margins. Here are the margins according to The Washington Post:

- Arizona: 9-12 points
- Georgia: 7-10 points
- Michigan: 26-39 points
- North Carolina: 2-6 points
- Pennsylvania: 17-35 points
- Wisconsin: 22-60 points

Caveats: The margin of error here is, naturally, large. These leads are smaller than Biden’s were in 2020, but back then, Trump discouraged Republicans from early voting while Democrats encouraged it. This time, Republicans are participating in early voting, making it more comparable to 2016, where these numbers are better than Hillary Clinton’s. But don’t over-read into early leads! Women and Democrats often vote early, while men and Republicans tend to vote on Election Day, so these gaps will narrow. Combined with the enthusiasm gap, though, the outlook remains encouraging. I won’t even delve into the “hopium” pieces circulating among liberal analysts.

Daylight Saving Time — It’s this weekend. Enjoy an extra hour of sleep. Relax. Obsessing won’t change the outcome and is hard on your mental health. Get some sleep, go for a walk, or see a movie (I hear Conclave is excellent).